Blair's Farewell Plans

Juvenal Tue Sep 05, 2006 at 01:56:56 PM GMT Print-friendly version Facebook

The Daily Mirror has got hold of what appears to be a leaked memo from Number Ten, outlining plans for Tony Blair's `retirement'.  



Written by his advisers, the memo talks about promoting the "triumph of Blairism", a farewell tour to include a spot on Songs of Praise, and the PM's departure leaving "the crowds wanting more".

We have two options here.  The first is that it's a spoof.  I sincerely hope so.  

The second is that it's serious.  Oh dear.  The Labour government has done much that it can be proud of, and Tony has been central to its success (and some of its failings).  But this kind of old school Soviet glorification of a leader - especially one that is increasingly disliked by the electorate - displays a chronic lack of awareness about what people think in the `real world'.  A quiet departure would be so much more dignified.  

There is a general belief that Tony is holding out for the tenth anniversary of Labour coming to power next year before he finally goes.  

Anniversaries are like birthdays - significant and exciting if they're your own; a little tedious and rather unimportant to everyone else.  As a party member, I'm no more excited about ten years than I was about eight or nine.  What matters to me is that the handover of power leaves a radical Labour government in power, with the best chance of winning the next general election.  If that means Tony going after 9.73 years, so be it.

http://20six.co.uk/breadandcircuses


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Blair's Farewell Plans | 23 comments (23 topical)

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#1)

by liz on Tue Sep 05, 2006 at 08:19:55 PM GMT

Probably just a brain storm of what should be done to celebrate the most successful Labour PM's tenure.  Seems OK to me.  Everyone in an organisation prepares for a retirement "do" why not No10?  I too want to see a Labour Government retain power. Not likely to happen with all these disloyal MPs briefing the media, sending stupid letters and destabilising the party.  They should be held to account if Labour loses the next election - not Tony Blair.  Shameful.........


Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#2)

by red flagger on Tue Sep 05, 2006 at 10:43:20 PM GMT

I disagree that MPs are being disloyal- they are trying to do what's best for the party, i.e. removing an unpopular leader and halting a downward slide in opinion polls. It is Blair who is on iffy ground with his refusal to go.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#3)

by neilfleming on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 12:51:30 AM GMT

but he hasn't refused to go. He has said he is going and by all accounts it seems, next year. It's self-serving nonsense these letters flying about the place, let's the media build up the type of frenzy we have seen today and every time the leadership is mentioned. We wont recover in the polls while we appear a party disunited and disloyal.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#5)

by snowflake5 on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 01:32:43 AM GMT

We won't recover while Tone is around either - we've been flatlining in the polls at about 31%/32% - it's not enough to win an election regardless what people are telling themselves. I'm not sure how low people want to go before they take this situation seriously. If you get too low, as John Major did, recovery is impossible. Given that Blair is burnt out and making mistakes, it's quite possible that the next few months will be like the last few months, one crisis and error of judgement after another and will drag Labour lower.  


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#13)

by Ian G on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 02:32:42 PM GMT

Have you ever considered that Tony Blair might be the disloyal one, putting his personal 'legacy' ahead of the party? In my opinion  the MPs you accuse of being 'disloyal' are acting in accordace with the wishes of the majority  of the party.

Do you honestly think it is good for the party to campaign in the elections next year with the party in this state? There is nothing to gain by TB staying for an extra six or twelve months, but a lot to lose.

Morale is crumbling and members are resigning left right and centre. And people in Downing street are planning appearences on 'Songs of Praise'. It's a sick joke on the Labour Party.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#14)

by snowflake5 on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 04:33:45 PM GMT

Blair is being disloyal. All he had to do was come back from his holiday and announce that he'd be stepping down in May, which would have given the candidates time to set out their stalls and debate the future, and the transition would have been orderly. Instead we got a menacing TV appearance (which ruined a perfectly good policy) and a careless interview in the Times where he seems to have given no thought at all to the needs of the party. And then this toe-curling farewell memo on top! We keep getting this "another 12 months" business. It was first touted in May, now in Sept, and so on. A rolling 12 months. I think he's taken the good nature and soft-heartedness of the Labour party for granted. And worst of all, he's making mistakes, which we just can't afford.

It's hard not to feel pity and sadness that his career has ended like this - but it has to end. Those who wish to put things off are like frogs being boiled slowly in water - we were at 44% in the 1997 election, 36% in the 2005 election, now 32% after Lebanon and other mishaps this summer. The latest slump comes after the public refused to believe the airport threat was real, because they don't trust Blair - what a position for the govt to be in! We won't recover till the PM stops making mistakes, and negotiations start to extract us from Afghanistan and Iraq - Blair is incapable of any of it, only his successor can do the necessary. This is a bit like the algerian war, which only got resolved when De Gaulle came out of retirement, took a cold look at the situation and extracted them from it- the original players were incapable of it.  


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#4)

by snowflake5 on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 01:24:39 AM GMT

Juvenal, you've been quoted in the Guardian!

 http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/archives/2006/09/05/all_the_worlds_a_stage.html


Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#6)

by turnleft on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 04:01:01 AM GMT

The 31st of May is the most optimistic possible date that could be hoped for by No 10 in order for Tony to reach his 10 year milestone. It is based on the certainty that Tony will be swept away by the blood of an electoral May Massacre.

The 31st of May also assumes that Labour does not drop any further down the polls. Given the momentum  against us at the moment this seems highly unlikely.  If New Labour drop more that 10 point behind the Tories in consecutive polls then he will be forced out of office.

All the stories that the rightwing newspaper editors have been sitting on will come out of the wood work before this conference in an attempt to unseat the Prime Minister when we return for the year.

Given the prediction I have been doing based on voter momentum and political responsiveness I predict an 85 seat majority for the Tories at the next General Election if Tony goes in May and Gordon calls a snap election in September 2007.    


Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#7)

by Andrea on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 04:05:43 AM GMT

"Given the prediction I have been doing based on voter momentum and political responsiveness I predict an 85 seat majority for the Tories at the next General Election if Tony goes in May and Gordon calls a snap election in September 2007. "

why would the new leader call a snap election if the tories are going to win it?! It would be a bit kamikaze to do so.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#8)

by alexhilton on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 07:59:52 AM GMT

because we're 20/22 seats up on the current boundaries compared to the new boundaries. A Bill has to pass in parliament before boundary changes take effect.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#11)

by Andrea on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 01:11:40 PM GMT

Actually I think I misunderstood the orignal comment, but I'm not sure if I follow this point either.
It's very possible that the new boundary changes are approved by the Parliament before September 2007. Jack Straw already promised (after a Theresa May's question about it) that they will be laid before parliament as quickly as possible after the commission finished its work. The Boundary Commission already said they would like to present their report before the end of 2006


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#9)

by turnleft on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 12:39:39 PM GMT

I don't think Gordon will call a snap election. I think he should put the New Labour mantle on and choose his own policies.

The problem is that if he doesn't say he is New Labour thru and thru then the press will say he doesn't have a mantle to govern and call for an election.

So he must somehow put the New Labour hat on, adopt his own policies, and hope that his new policies will change voters opinions. Let's face it no matter what he actually does it's going to be very hard for the press to "prove" that he's not New Labour - so a bit of lip service will give him more time. If he can't turn things around in 2 years he is probably the wrong man for the job anyway.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#10)

by turnleft on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 12:41:10 PM GMT

The problem is that if he doesn't say he is New Labour thru and thru then the press will say he doesn't have a mantle to govern and call for an election.

Ops, I meant mandate


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#12)

by Andrea on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 01:13:48 PM GMT

yes, I understand this (and I misunderstood your original point). Adam Bolton on Sky yesterday night was already mentioning the "he has not a mandate" thing saying people elected Tony Blair as PM (and ignoring that the PM is not directly elected, but voters elect MPs)


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#15)

by otware on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 05:59:12 PM GMT

If Gordon Brown wants to be a succesful PM (not just a Jim Callaghan figure who doesn't actually win an election) he has to at least ditch the name of New Labour. The population is fed up of New Labour which is why they are moving away and voting Lib Dem, Green or Respect. At the same time the centrist/centre-right people who New Labour is designed to pander to are no longer interested and are turning away and going for Cameron - he too has a right wing agenda, but he is younger and not so sleazy just yet.

As such, I cannot see how the 'centre ground' can possibly be a home for a succesful Labour Party anymore. All the main parties seem to be offering centrist policies which means that there is no choice anymore. It's all abour personalities instead of policies. What will inevitably happen is that voters will turn to extremeist groups (Respect, BNP, Socialist Party, UKIP) and give them a say when actually they don't reflect public opinion at all.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#16)

by tigerbay on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 06:32:02 PM GMT

As a Brownite, in my view there's only one Blairite who should resign - and it's not Tony Blair.

I am utterly appalled that Welsh Labour MPs are acting in the way they are.  

I like most grassroots party members here in Wales want Blair to stand down before the election campaign begins, to maximise our chances of a third assembly term.

Given the events of the last 72 hours, in my mind the only people to blame if Labour loses the assembly are MPs like Bryant.  Their actions do nothing to promote social justice and everything to ensure Wales gets a preview of a modern Tory government.  The gutless PPSs who signed should quit and my message to comrades in the Rhondda CLP is - deselect and deselect now.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#18)

by turnleft on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 07:17:56 PM GMT

I don't think Gordon can ditch the New Labour label because that will mean he doesn't have a mandate and he will be forced to call a snap election - and probably lose.

His best bet is to say he is New Labour but implement his own agenda for social justice.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#19)

by otware on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 07:26:52 PM GMT

Well either way he'll loose the next election. It makes very little difference. If he claims to be New Labour he'll loose and as such New Labour will be killed off once and for all. If he doesn't claim to be New Labour he will still loose and the infighting between the Brownites, the Blairites and the left will probably kill New Labour. Either way New Labour is almost over and there probably won't be a Labour government for another 10 years.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair's Farewell Plans (#21)

by tigerbay on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 07:30:52 PM GMT

Good point Turn Left.

I think the chances of an early election also hang on who challenges Brown for the leadership.

A Brown/McDonnell fight - no chance of early election.

A Brown/McDonnell/right-wing candidate fight - more of a chance of an early election.

A straight Brown/McDonnell fight would see Brown fight as the New Labour/centre-right Labour candidate.  Brown, obviously the victor could rightly claim that the party's broad agenda hasn't changed - his New Labour is still running the Labour Party, albeit at a different speed.

But, if Brown was challenged by a Blairite like Reid, and Brown won, I think many voters would feel that the Labour Party has rejected an agenda which the they voted for in 2005, and would push for fresh elections to give Brown a mandate to pursue 'his' course.

Of course, at the end of the day only one thing determines whether a modern day PM takes his/her party to polls - and that's the likelihood of victory.


[ Parent ]

Blair has Weeks not Months (#17)

by turnleft on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 07:14:57 PM GMT

There is now a fatal determinism that Tony Blair has weeks rather than months left in power.  

My initial thoughts on the subject were that Tony Blair would stay until next summer because Pres. Bush had asked him to help out over Iran. However, this assumes the Prime Minister has control over future events.

The Iran issue is now secondary to an inevitable domino effect that is looming.

John McDonnell will challenge Tony Blair at the conference in Manchester. If (as is certain) Tony Blair would win against John McDonnell (if it were a 2 horse race) it would then give a mandate to Tony Blair to carry on for another year.

To stop this from happening an opportunistic MP will "stand against John McDonnell". The outcome of this three horse race will be less certain and this will then trigger Gordon Brown to stand. Knowing Tony Blair cannot defeat a number of challengers Tony Blair will then resign.


Re: Blair has Weeks not Months (#20)

by otware on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 07:29:18 PM GMT

Why will McDonnell try and trigger a leadership election at the conference? He has never said anything of the sort.


[ Parent ]

Re: Blair has Weeks not Months (#23)

by doctordunc on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 11:38:05 PM GMT

This seems unlikely.  John is - very sensibly in my view - keeping out of this unholy mess at the moment.  I think his best strategy would be to insist on a discussion of policies and principles (an area where he is closer to the party mainstream than Blair or Brown) and, without personal attacks, expose these 'other dissidents' as the pretty grubby personality politicians they appear to be.


[ Parent ]

Hours Not Days?! (#22)

by turnleft on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 07:32:24 PM GMT

Just saw the news - 6 have quit from the Government.

If Tony doesn't do something fast New Labour looks like it's going to melt down before the weekend.


Blair's Farewell Plans | 23 comments (23 topical)